Bitcoin Monthly Bollinger Band Moving Average — Why the Bull Market Isn’t Over Yet

What’s up, guys? It’s Dan from Coin Bureau Trading.
Today, we’re breaking down one of the most important—but most overlooked—signals in all of crypto: the Bitcoin Monthly Bollinger Band Moving Average (BB MA).

This single line has predicted every major bull and bear market shift for years—and it’s flashing a critical message right now.

Before we jump in, remember:
This is not financial advice
It’s my personal analysis
Different opinions make the market—use this to sharpen your edge

Let’s get into it.

The Crypto Bull Market IS NOT OVER (Yet)!!

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The Monthly Bollinger Band Moving Average: The Real Bull vs. Bear Line

Many traders obsess over the 50-week SMA or other trend tools, but for years I’ve noticed something cleaner:

Bitcoin above the Monthly Bollinger Band MA = Bull Market
Bitcoin below the Monthly Bollinger Band MA = Bear Market

Every. Single. Time.

Take 2022:
When BTC broke below that moving average, the bear market wasn’t a question—it was confirmed.

Fast forward to late 2023:
Bitcoin reclaimed the BB MA… and the new bull trend began.

This indicator has been flawless for years.

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We Just Hit the Retest That Everyone Forgot About

Here’s where things get interesting:

When price breaks above a major resistance, it eventually comes back to retest it as support. That’s standard TA 101.

But since October 2023, Bitcoin had not retested the monthly BB MA…
…until November 2025.

From a purely technical perspective, this retest is completely normal—even healthy.

⭐ As long as Bitcoin CLOSES the month above ~$87,400, the bull market remains intact.

That’s the line in the sand.

Even if you’re convinced “it’s over,” history says BTC typically bounces from this zone for 1–3 months before confirming any deeper trend shift.

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Total Crypto Market Cap Confirms the Same Signal

It’s not just BTC.

The total crypto market cap chart shows an identical pattern:

• Fell below the BB MA in 2022 → Bear market

• Broke back above → Bull market

• Just retested → Same key inflection point

Both charts show a critical support test, not a breakdown.

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A Bounce Is Coming — Even If the Trend Fails Later

Every major timeframe (especially the weekly) is massively oversold.

Whether the bull market continues or not:

A sizable bounce is statistically extremely likely over the next few weeks.

Nothing goes straight down.

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The U.S. Dollar (DXY) Is the Deciding Factor

Right as crypto hits major support, the DXY is hitting major resistance (~100).

This creates perfect cross-market confluence:

If the DXY Breaks Above 100 → Bearish

Crypto likely continues lower. Bull market at risk.

If the DXY Rejects 100 → Bullish

Crypto likely bounces. Altcoin season becomes more probable.

So in the next 3–10 days:
Watch the DXY more than you watch Bitcoin.

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The Quiet Macro Story: Liquidity Is Returning

Several macro signals show the Federal Reserve may soon need to inject liquidity again:

• Issues in the repo market

• Large institutions requesting support

• Fed Governor Williams hinting at bond-buying

• Analysts like Joseph Wang expecting a new form of “QE without calling it QE”

This is eerily similar to March 2023—when crypto bottomed and then exploded.

Liquidity drives crypto.

If the Fed steps in, crypto gets fuel.

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Whales Are Already Rotating Into Altcoins

This is the part nobody is talking about.

Despite brutal price action:

• Bitcoin dominance is FALLING

• OTHERS (altcoin) dominance is RISING

This is happening even as prices dump.

Translation?

Smart money is accumulating altcoins beneath the surface.

Spot ETFs for SOL, XRP, and ZEC are seeing zero net outflow days, while BTC and ETH ETFs bleed.

When the bounce comes—
altcoins will outperform Bitcoin, likely by a wide margin.

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Fractal Comparison: Banking Crisis 2023 vs. Today

Some analysts are comparing the current price action to the March 2023 banking crisis:

• Liquidity crunch

• Fed forced to intervene

• Bitcoin ripped after stimulus

The charts look eerily similar.

This doesn’t guarantee BTC hits $150K next week—but sentiment, liquidity stress, and structure rhyme.

And markets often repeat under similar conditions.

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Final Takeaway: The Bull Market Is Not Dead

Looking at everything together:

✔ Bitcoin just retested the most important support in the market
✔ Total market cap shows the same structure
✔ DXY is at resistance
✔ Altcoins are gaining relative strength
✔ Macro liquidity tailwinds are building
✔ Oversold conditions are extreme
✔ A bounce is highly likely
✔ Trend only dies if Bitcoin closes below ~$87,400 on the monthly

The next few weekly candles will set the tone for the entire next quarter.

Until then?
Don’t get shaken out at major support.